Trends between elections
Clicking on the party names in the legend disables/enables the party while double-clicking singles the party out. The vertical lines represent the elections (full=national; dashed=european). The thresholds for entry into parliament are 5% for a single party and 7% for 2-3 party alliances (PS-SPOLU; OĽaNO-KÚ-ZĽ). The alliance threshold can be bypassed by sharing the party list (as was done by OĽaNO in the past and many others).
The model was created with LOESS on the mean fieldwork of the polls. Variants (e.g. with new parties), elections, as well as polls with unknown fieldwork dates were excluded from the model (shown as empty rings in the graph). The model's smoothing was optimised using the Mean absolute confidence percentage error on each period separately.
Seat estimates
Experimental| Party | Seats | Confidence Intervals | Vs 2023 | Vs Now | Entry Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 34 | 29-41 | ▲ 2 | ▲ 1 | >99% |
| Smer | 32 | 26-37 | ▼ 10 | ▼ 10 | >99% |
| Republika | 20 | 16-25 | ▲ 20 | ▲ 20 | >99% |
| OĽaNO | 14 | 10-18 | ▲ 1 | ▲ 3 | >99% |
| SaS | 14 | 10-18 | ▲ 3 | ▲ 2 | >99% |
| Hlas | 14 | 9-17 | ▼ 13 | ▼ 11 | ~99% |
| KDH | 12 | 0-15 | ● 0 | ▲ 1 | ~96% |
| Demokrati | 10 | 0-13 | ▲ 10 | ▲ 9 | ~82% |
| MA | 0 | 0-10 | ● 0 | ● 0 | ~21% |
| SNS | 0 | 0-8 | ▼ 7 | ▼ 7 | ~3% |
| SR | 0 | 0-0 | ● 0 | ● 0 | ~1% |
| ZĽ | 0 | 0-0 | ▼ 1 | ▼ 1 | <1% |
| KÚ | 0 | 0-0 | ▼ 2 | ▼ 1 | <1% |
| SV | 0 | 0-0 | ▼ 3 | ▼ 3 | <1% |
The mean is directly calculated from the LOESS model (as seen above). The 95% confidence intervals and entry probabilities are then derived from 10,000 simulated elections where each party is considered separately for simplification.
Party potential and core trends
2026-04-15
